Sunday, November 21, 2010

Battle between Germany and China on Quality






A recent article by Christopher Steitz in the New York Times highlights the shifting forces in the manufacture of renewable energy technology.  In 2009 SolarWorld in Frankfurt Germany  was ranked as the highest quality manufacturer of photo voltaic panels in the world by the industry journal Photon in its annual ranking.  Then followed the US manufacturer First Solar (which also manufactures in Frankfurt!) and other US and European manufacturers.  The first Chinese manufacturer on the list was  Solarfun  (listed on NASDAQ: SOLF)  came in 13th.  


Photon runs a testing program between its annual survey - and in July 2009 - Solarfun maintained its number one ranking.  Solarfun came in 14th.  


Investment in renewable energy was larger in China  than in Europe or the US in 2009, totalling a massive $34.5 billion investment into wind turbines, solar panels and low carbon energy technology.  Spending in the US was second at just over $18.6 billion and the UK ranked third (The Washington Post).  


Total global  investment in renewable energy totalled 80 gigawatts globally according to the Washington Post, only just behind the 83 gigawatts of fossil fuel plants added.  In Europe clean energy now amounts to over 60% of new capacity.


Will the "Made in Germany" tag maintain the premium brand value of the SolarWorld and other high end German renewable energy manufacturers - in a way similar to the desirable brand  attributes of German brands such as BMW or MIele?  


Or will we see the slow transfer of volume and revenue to the Mexican, Chinese or Indian manufacturing bases -because - fundamentally - people will trade off price for quality because they don't really care what is on their roof?


I learned a long time ago that if you don't have the lowest cost base - don't try to compete on price.  So - as I see it - the task for us all is to grow the market - and let the market sort it self out.  The Germans will survive and thrive.


For me - I will probably stick with the Germans!  But thank God for the Chinese investment in their capacity - it lowers the threshold of entry to cheaper renewable energy for millions around the world.







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